Bracket Projections - 2/10/2014

Here's my bracket projections for the games played through the weekend.  As is always the case these projections are largely based on current results, but they also factor in expected results through the rest of the season.

1 Seeds:  ARIZONA, SYRACUSE, VILLANOVA, KANSAS

2 Seeds:  Duke, FLORIDA, WICHITA STATE, Michigan State

3 Seeds:  Creighton, Wisconsin, SAN DIEGO STATE, Iowa State

4 Seeds:  Iowa, MICHIGAN, Kentucky, CINCINNATI

5 Seeds:  Louisville, Virginia, Ohio State, SAINT LOUIS

6 Seeds:  UCLA, Pittsburgh, GONZAGA, Memphis

7 Seeds:  Oklahoma State, Connecticut, Oklahoma, Texas

8 Seeds:  VCU, SMU, Massachusetts, North Carolina

9 Seeds:  Arizona State, Stanford, George Washington, New Mexico

10 Seeds:  Tennessee, Kansas State, SOUTHERN MISS, Colorado

11 Seeds:  Florida State, Xavier, Minnesota, California

12 Seeds:  Oregon, BYU, Harvard, Missouri, TOLEDO, NORTH DAKOTA STATE

13 Seeds:  STEPHEN F AUSTIN, MERCER, GREEN BAY, IONA

14 Seeds:  GEORGIA STATE, DELAWARE, VERMONT, BELMONT

15 Seeds:  UC IRVINE, AMERICAN U, NC CENTRAL, DAVIDSON

16 Seeds:  ROBERT MORRIS, YALE, WEBER STATE, UTAH VALLEY, SOUTHERN, VMI

Last 4 Byes:  Florida State, Xavier, Minnesota, California

Last 4 In:  Oregon, BYU, Harvard, Missouri

First 4 Out:  Providence, LSU, St. Joseph's, Richmond

Next 4 Out:  Louisiana Tech, Georgetown, Dayton, Clemson

The competition at the top of the bracket is really strong this year.  Arizona and Syracuse are as close to locks for a 1 seed as you can have at this point in the season.  I personally think Duke is the 3rd best team in the nation, but their loss to Notre Dame (and to a lesser degree Clemson) keeps them currently off the top line.  San Diego State has a gaudy record, but their SOS is somewhat suspect and there's a good chance they'll lose 1 or 2 games before the end of the year.  Wichita State may end the season undefeated, but their weak SOS also holds them back.  They are definitely in the conversation for a 1 seed, but their lack of top 50 wins compared to the other top teams keeps them on the 2 line for now.  Kansas has the most RPI top 50 wins in the nation (along with Arizona).  Villanova and Florida are both currently 5-2 against RPI top-50, but Villanova has 2 more top-100 wins than Florida which gives them the edge for now.