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Monday, December 15, 2014

Bracket Projection - 12/15/14

Here's another update as we're now a little over a month into the season.  Some conference have started into conference play and those that haven't will be starting within the next couple of weeks.  I probably won't have another update until after the new year.

1 Seeds:  KENTUCKY, DUKE, WISCONSIN, Virginia
2 Seeds:  Louisville, TEXAS, Kansas, ARIZONA
3 Seeds:  GONZAGA, VILLANOVA, Baylor, Ohio State
4 Seeds:  WICHITA STATE, Utah, North Carolina, Oklahoma
5 Seeds:  Miami FL, Michigan State, Iowa State, Xavier
6 Seeds:  SAN DIEGO STATE, West Virginia, Butler, Oklahoma State
7 Seeds:  Maryland, Florida, Northern Iowa, Minnesota
8 Seeds:  St. John's, VCU, Arkansas, Georgetown
9 Seeds:  Washington, Seton Hall, South Carolina, Iowa
10 Seeds:  HARVARD, Colorado State, GREEN BAY, Illinois
11 Seeds:  SMU, Davidson, NC State, Notre Dame
12 Seeds:  BYU, TCU, Georgia, Stanford, Purdue, EASTERN WASHINGTON
13 Seeds:  OLD DOMINION, GEORGIA STATE, BUFFALO, WOFFFORD
14 Seeds:  STEPHEN F AUSTIN, HOFSTRA, UC SANTA BARBARA, IONA
15 Seeds:  FL GULF COAST, NEW MEXICO STATE, LAFAYETTE, BELMONT
16 Seeds:  NC CENTRAL, COASTAL CAROLINA, VERMONT, SOUTH DAKOTA STATE, SACRED HEART, ALABAMA STATE

Last 4 Byes:   Davidson, NC State, Notre Dame, BYU
Last 4 In:  TCU, Georgia, Stanford, Purdue
First 4 Out:  Texas A&M, Rhode Island, UCLA, Syracuse
Next 4 Out:  Cincinnati, California, George Washington, Boise State


Saturday, November 29, 2014

Bracket Projection - 11/29/2014

Here's my first update of the year now that we're over 2 full weeks into the season.  There are a few major changes with this over the last update.

1 Seeds:  KENTUCKY, WISCONSIN, DUKE, Louisville
2 Seeds:  TEXAS, Virginia, North Carolina, GONZAGA
3 Seeds:  ARIZONA, WICHITA STATE, SAN DIEGO STATE, Miami FL
4 Seeds:  Kansas, Baylor, VILLANOVA, Illinois
5 Seeds:  Ohio State, Utah, Syracuse, Michigan State
6 Seeds:  Oklahoma, Arkansas, Xavier, Michigan
7 Seeds:  VCU, Butler, West Virginia, CONNECTICUT
8 Seeds:  Stanford, Iowa, Maryland, Providence
9 Seeds:  Iowa State, California, NC State, Oklahoma State
10 Seeds:  Georgetown, Northern Iowa, Purdue, Florida
11 Seeds:  BYU, Texas A&M, Notre Dame, GREEN BAY
12 Seeds:  IONA, HARVARD, Dayton, Pittsburgh, St. Mary's, Seton Hall
13 Seeds:  WOFFORD, UTEP, NEW MEXICO STATE, BELMONT
14 Seeds:  UC SANTA BARBARA, GEORGIA STATE, EASTERN WASHINGTON, FL GULF COAST
15 Seeds:  STONY BROOK, BUFFALO, STEPHEN F AUSTIN, HOFSTRA
16 Seeds:  NC CENTRAL, AMERICAN, DENVER, HIGH POINT, BRYANT, ALABAMA STATE

Last 4 Byes:  Florida, BYU, Texas A&M, Notre Dame
Last 4 In:  Dayton, Pittsburgh, St. Mary's, Seton Hall
First 4 Out:  Massachusetts, George Washington, SMU, Oregon
Next 4 Out:  Richmond, St. John's, Cincinnati, Minnesota


Monday, November 10, 2014

Preseason Bracket Projections for 2014-2015

This is the first time I've ever done a preseason projection.  I don't put a whole lot of stock in these projections since nobody has even played a game yet, but here's what I have as of right now.  This is largely based upon a combination of how teams finished last year, returning players, recruiting classes, and expected SOS.  I expect this will change significantly throughout the season.

1 Seeds:  DUKE, KENTUCKY, WISCONSIN, KANSAS
2 Seeds:  ARIZONA, Louisville, Florida, Ohio State
3 Seeds:  North Carolina, Virginia, Michigan State, VILLANOVA
4 Seeds:  CONNECTICUT, Texas, Syracuse, VCU
5 Seeds:  WICHITA STATE, Michigan, GONZAGA, SAN DIEGO STATE
6 Seeds:  Georgetown, Pittsburgh, Oklahoma, Iowa State
7 Seeds:  UCLA, Nebraska, Iowa, Arkansas
8 Seeds:  Memphis, Kansas State, SMU, Utah
9 Seeds:  Minnesota, Baylor, BYU, Indiana
10 Seeds:  Illinois, Colorado, Stanford, Cincinnati
11 Seeds:  Florida State, HARVARD, Dayton, New Mexico
12 Seeds:  LSU, Xavier, St. John's, Oklahoma State, LOUISIANA TECH, IONA
13 Seeds:  BELMONT, GREEN BAY, GEORGIA STATE, NEW MEXICO STATE
14 Seeds:  DENVER, STEPHEN F AUSTIN, UC IRVINE, AKRON
15 Seeds:  STONY BROOK, NORTHEASTERN, WOFFORD, AMERICAN
16 Seeds:  WEBER STATE, FL GULF COAST, NC CENTRAL, COASTAL CAROLINA, ST. FRANCIS, TX SOUTHERN

Last 4 Byes:  Cincinnati, Florida State, Dayton, New Mexico
Last 4 In:  LSU, Xavier, St. John's, Oklahoma State
First 4 Out:  Georgia, Boise State, Maryland, Oregon
Next 4 Out:  NC State, Providence, George Washington, Miami FL

Sunday, March 16, 2014

Bracket Projection - Final (with contingencies)

Here's my final bracket projection for the year along with contingencies for the games today (I won't have time between when games end and selections are announced to update them, though I will adjust the projection to reflect the contingencies listed here at some point).

1 Seeds:  FLORIDA, Arizona, WICHITA STATE, MICHIGAN
2 Seeds:  Villanova, Kansas, Duke, VIRGINIA
3 Seeds:  Wisconsin, IOWA STATE, LOUISVILLE, Creighton
4 Seeds:  Syracuse, Michigan State, San Diego State, UCLA
5 Seeds:  Cincinnati, VCU, Ohio State, Connecticut
6 Seeds:  NEW MEXICO, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Kentucky
7 Seeds:  Baylor, Saint Louis, GONZAGA, Oregon
8 Seeds:  Texas, Massachusetts, George Washington, Pittsburgh
9 Seeds:  Oklahoma State, Memphis, Colorado, Pittsburgh
10 Seeds:  Kansas State, Tennessee, Iowa, SMU
11 Seeds:  PROVIDENCE, Arizona State, St. Joseph's, Xavier, BYU
12 Seeds:  Nebraska, Dayton, HARVARD, NORTH DAKOTA STATE, STEPHEN F AUSTIN
13 Seeds:  MANHATTAN, TULSA, GEORGIA STATE, NEW MEXICO STATE
14 Seeds:  DELAWARE, WESTERN MICHIGAN, MERCER, NC CENTRAL
15 Seeds:  EASTERN KENTUCKY, AMERICAN, WI MILWAUKEE, WEBER STATE
16 Seeds:  WOFFORD, ALBANY, CAL POLY, MOUNT ST MARY'S, COASTAL CAROLINA, TEXAS SOUTHERN

Last 4 Byes:  Iowa, SMU, Arizona State, St. Joseph's
Last 4 In:  Xavier, BYU, Nebraska, Dayton
First 4 Out:  Florida State, Minnesota, Southern Miss, Green Bay
Next 4 Out:  California, Louisiana Tech, NC State, St. John's

Contingencies:
Sun Belt - if La-Lafayette wins they replace Georgia State in the field but get a 14 seed.  Delaware moves up to a 13 seed.
ACC - no seed changes regardless of winner
A10 - no seed changes regardless of winner
SEC - no seed changes regardless of winner
B10 - no seed changes regardless of winner.  A Michigan loss would make things razor-thin between them and Villanova for the 4th 1 seed.  However, I think Michigan would just barely hang on to it in that situation due to their quantity of RPI top 50 wins.

Bracket Projection - 3/16/2014 (early AM)

This is a quick overnight update based on games played through 3/16.  I will evaluate teams a little further in the morning before I come up with a final projection.

1 Seeds:  FLORIDA, Arizona, WICHITA STATE, Villanova
2 Seeds:  Kansas, Wisconsin, Duke, VIRGINIA
3 Seeds:  Creighton, MICHIGAN, LOUISVILLE, IOWA STATE
4 Seeds:  San Diego State, Syracuse, Michigan State, Connecticut
5 Seeds:  Cincinnati, VCU, UCLA, Ohio State
6 Seeds:  North Carolina, Oklahoma, Kentucky, NEW MEXICO
7 Seeds:  Baylor, Oregon, Saint Louis, GONZAGA
8 Seeds:  Texas, George Washington, Massachusetts, Pittsburgh
9 Seeds:  Memphis, Colorado, Oklahoma State, Stanford
10 Seeds:  Kansas State, Tennessee, Iowa, SMU
11 Seeds:  Arizona State, Xavier, St. Joseph's, BYU, PROVIDENCE
12 Seeds:  HARVARD, Nebraska, Dayton, NORTH DAKOTA STATE, STEPHEN F AUSTIN
13 Seeds:  MANHATTAN, GEORGIA STATE, TULSA, NEW MEXICO STATE
14 Seeds:  NC CENTRAL, DELAWARE, MERCER, WESTERN MICHIGAN
15 Seeds:  AMERICAN, EASTERN KENTUCKY, MILWAUKEE, WEBER STATE
16 Seeds:  WOFFORD, CAL POLY, ALBANY, MOUNT ST MARY'S, COASTAL CAROLINA, TEXAS SOUTHERN

Last 4 Byes:  Iowa, SMU, Arizona State, Xavier
Last 4 In:  St. Joseph's, BYU, Nebraska, Dayton
First 5 Out:  Louisiana Tech, Florida State, Minnesota, Southern Miss, California


Saturday, March 15, 2014

Bracket Projection - 3/15/2014 (PM)

Here are my updates through several of the games today.  I'll consistently be re-evaluating teams between now and tomorrow as well so some teams projected seed may change even without them being involved with games as we get closer to the selections.

1 Seeds:  ARIZONA, FLORIDA, WICHITA STATE, Villanova
2 Seeds:  Kansas, Wisconsin, Duke, CREIGHTON
3 Seeds:  VIRGINIA, MICHIGAN, LOUISVILLE, SAN DIEGO STATE
4 Seeds:  Syracuse, IOWA STATE, Michigan State, Connecticut
5 Seeds:  Cincinnati, VCU, UCLA, Ohio State
6 Seeds:  North Carolina, Oklahoma, Kentucky, New Mexico
7 Seeds:  Baylor, Saint Louis, GONZAGA, Oregon
8 Seeds:  George Washington, Texas, Massachusetts, Pittsburgh
9 Seeds:  Memphis, Colorado, Oklahoma State, Stanford
10 Seeds:  Kansas State, Tennessee, Iowa, SMU
11 Seeds:  Arizona State, Xavier, St. Joseph's, BYU, Providence
12 Seeds:  Nebraska, Dayton, NORTH DAKOTA STATE, TOLEDO
13 Seeds:  MANHATTAN, GEORGIA STATE, STEPHEN F AUSTIN, TULSA
14 Seeds:  NEW MEXICO STATE, NC CENTRAL, DELAWARE, MERCER
15 Seeds:  AMERICAN, EASTERN KENTUCKY, WI MILWAUKEE, WEBER STATE
16 Seeds:  WOFFORD, ALBANY, MOUNT ST MARY'S, COASTAL CAROLINA, CS NORTHRIDGE, TEXAS SOUTHERN

Last 4 Byes:  SMU, Arizona State, Xavier, St. Joseph's
Last 4 In:  BYU, Providence, Nebraska, Dayton
First 4 Out:  Louisiana Tech, Florida State, Minnesota, Southern Miss
Next 4 Out:  California, NC State, St. John's, Utah


Bracket Projection - 3/15/2014 (AM)

Here's my projected bracket as of games through 3/14/2014

1 Seeds:  ARIZONA, FLORIDA, WICHITA STATE, Villanova
2 Seeds:  Kansas, Wisconsin, Duke, VIRGINIA
3 Seeds:  CREIGHTON, MICHIGAN, Syracuse, LOUISVILLE
4 Seeds:  SAN DIEGO STATE, IOWA STATE, Cincinnati, Michigan State
5 Seeds:  North Carolina, VCU, Ohio State, UCLA
6 Seeds:  Oklahoma, Saint Louis, Kentucky, Connecticut
7 Seeds:  New Mexico, Texas, Massachusetts, GONZAGA
8 Seeds:  Baylor, Oregon, Oklahoma State, George Washington
9 Seeds:  Memphis, Colorado, Pittsburgh, Stanford
10 Seeds:  Kansas State, Iowa, SMU, Arizona State
11 Seeds:  Xavier, Nebraska, Dayton, Tennessee, BYU
12 Seeds:  St. Joseph's, Providence, HARVARD, LOUISIANA TECH, NORTH DAKOTA STATE
13 Seeds:  MANHATTAN, STEPHEN F AUSTIN, GEORGIA STATE, TOLEDO
14 Seeds:  NEW MEXICO STATE, NC CENTRAL, MERCER, DELAWARE
15 Seeds:  AMERICAN, EASTERN KENTUCKY, WI MILWAUKEE, STONY BROOK
16 Seeds:  WEBER STATE, WOFFORD, MOUNT ST MARY'S, COASTAL CAROLINA, CS NORTHRIDGE, TEXAS SOUTHERN


Last 4 Byes:  Arizona State, Xavier, Nebraska, Dayton
Last 4 In:  Tennessee, BYU, St. Joseph's, Providence
First 4 Out:  Minnesota, Florida State, Southern Miss, Green Bay
Next 4 Out:  Missouri, California, St. John's, Utah