Sunday, March 16, 2014

Bracket Projection - Final (with contingencies)

Here's my final bracket projection for the year along with contingencies for the games today (I won't have time between when games end and selections are announced to update them, though I will adjust the projection to reflect the contingencies listed here at some point).

1 Seeds:  FLORIDA, Arizona, WICHITA STATE, MICHIGAN
2 Seeds:  Villanova, Kansas, Duke, VIRGINIA
3 Seeds:  Wisconsin, IOWA STATE, LOUISVILLE, Creighton
4 Seeds:  Syracuse, Michigan State, San Diego State, UCLA
5 Seeds:  Cincinnati, VCU, Ohio State, Connecticut
6 Seeds:  NEW MEXICO, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Kentucky
7 Seeds:  Baylor, Saint Louis, GONZAGA, Oregon
8 Seeds:  Texas, Massachusetts, George Washington, Pittsburgh
9 Seeds:  Oklahoma State, Memphis, Colorado, Pittsburgh
10 Seeds:  Kansas State, Tennessee, Iowa, SMU
11 Seeds:  PROVIDENCE, Arizona State, St. Joseph's, Xavier, BYU
12 Seeds:  Nebraska, Dayton, HARVARD, NORTH DAKOTA STATE, STEPHEN F AUSTIN
13 Seeds:  MANHATTAN, TULSA, GEORGIA STATE, NEW MEXICO STATE
14 Seeds:  DELAWARE, WESTERN MICHIGAN, MERCER, NC CENTRAL
15 Seeds:  EASTERN KENTUCKY, AMERICAN, WI MILWAUKEE, WEBER STATE
16 Seeds:  WOFFORD, ALBANY, CAL POLY, MOUNT ST MARY'S, COASTAL CAROLINA, TEXAS SOUTHERN

Last 4 Byes:  Iowa, SMU, Arizona State, St. Joseph's
Last 4 In:  Xavier, BYU, Nebraska, Dayton
First 4 Out:  Florida State, Minnesota, Southern Miss, Green Bay
Next 4 Out:  California, Louisiana Tech, NC State, St. John's

Contingencies:
Sun Belt - if La-Lafayette wins they replace Georgia State in the field but get a 14 seed.  Delaware moves up to a 13 seed.
ACC - no seed changes regardless of winner
A10 - no seed changes regardless of winner
SEC - no seed changes regardless of winner
B10 - no seed changes regardless of winner.  A Michigan loss would make things razor-thin between them and Villanova for the 4th 1 seed.  However, I think Michigan would just barely hang on to it in that situation due to their quantity of RPI top 50 wins.

Bracket Projection - 3/16/2014 (early AM)

This is a quick overnight update based on games played through 3/16.  I will evaluate teams a little further in the morning before I come up with a final projection.

1 Seeds:  FLORIDA, Arizona, WICHITA STATE, Villanova
2 Seeds:  Kansas, Wisconsin, Duke, VIRGINIA
3 Seeds:  Creighton, MICHIGAN, LOUISVILLE, IOWA STATE
4 Seeds:  San Diego State, Syracuse, Michigan State, Connecticut
5 Seeds:  Cincinnati, VCU, UCLA, Ohio State
6 Seeds:  North Carolina, Oklahoma, Kentucky, NEW MEXICO
7 Seeds:  Baylor, Oregon, Saint Louis, GONZAGA
8 Seeds:  Texas, George Washington, Massachusetts, Pittsburgh
9 Seeds:  Memphis, Colorado, Oklahoma State, Stanford
10 Seeds:  Kansas State, Tennessee, Iowa, SMU
11 Seeds:  Arizona State, Xavier, St. Joseph's, BYU, PROVIDENCE
12 Seeds:  HARVARD, Nebraska, Dayton, NORTH DAKOTA STATE, STEPHEN F AUSTIN
13 Seeds:  MANHATTAN, GEORGIA STATE, TULSA, NEW MEXICO STATE
14 Seeds:  NC CENTRAL, DELAWARE, MERCER, WESTERN MICHIGAN
15 Seeds:  AMERICAN, EASTERN KENTUCKY, MILWAUKEE, WEBER STATE
16 Seeds:  WOFFORD, CAL POLY, ALBANY, MOUNT ST MARY'S, COASTAL CAROLINA, TEXAS SOUTHERN

Last 4 Byes:  Iowa, SMU, Arizona State, Xavier
Last 4 In:  St. Joseph's, BYU, Nebraska, Dayton
First 5 Out:  Louisiana Tech, Florida State, Minnesota, Southern Miss, California


Saturday, March 15, 2014

Bracket Projection - 3/15/2014 (PM)

Here are my updates through several of the games today.  I'll consistently be re-evaluating teams between now and tomorrow as well so some teams projected seed may change even without them being involved with games as we get closer to the selections.

1 Seeds:  ARIZONA, FLORIDA, WICHITA STATE, Villanova
2 Seeds:  Kansas, Wisconsin, Duke, CREIGHTON
3 Seeds:  VIRGINIA, MICHIGAN, LOUISVILLE, SAN DIEGO STATE
4 Seeds:  Syracuse, IOWA STATE, Michigan State, Connecticut
5 Seeds:  Cincinnati, VCU, UCLA, Ohio State
6 Seeds:  North Carolina, Oklahoma, Kentucky, New Mexico
7 Seeds:  Baylor, Saint Louis, GONZAGA, Oregon
8 Seeds:  George Washington, Texas, Massachusetts, Pittsburgh
9 Seeds:  Memphis, Colorado, Oklahoma State, Stanford
10 Seeds:  Kansas State, Tennessee, Iowa, SMU
11 Seeds:  Arizona State, Xavier, St. Joseph's, BYU, Providence
12 Seeds:  Nebraska, Dayton, NORTH DAKOTA STATE, TOLEDO
13 Seeds:  MANHATTAN, GEORGIA STATE, STEPHEN F AUSTIN, TULSA
14 Seeds:  NEW MEXICO STATE, NC CENTRAL, DELAWARE, MERCER
15 Seeds:  AMERICAN, EASTERN KENTUCKY, WI MILWAUKEE, WEBER STATE
16 Seeds:  WOFFORD, ALBANY, MOUNT ST MARY'S, COASTAL CAROLINA, CS NORTHRIDGE, TEXAS SOUTHERN

Last 4 Byes:  SMU, Arizona State, Xavier, St. Joseph's
Last 4 In:  BYU, Providence, Nebraska, Dayton
First 4 Out:  Louisiana Tech, Florida State, Minnesota, Southern Miss
Next 4 Out:  California, NC State, St. John's, Utah


Bracket Projection - 3/15/2014 (AM)

Here's my projected bracket as of games through 3/14/2014

1 Seeds:  ARIZONA, FLORIDA, WICHITA STATE, Villanova
2 Seeds:  Kansas, Wisconsin, Duke, VIRGINIA
3 Seeds:  CREIGHTON, MICHIGAN, Syracuse, LOUISVILLE
4 Seeds:  SAN DIEGO STATE, IOWA STATE, Cincinnati, Michigan State
5 Seeds:  North Carolina, VCU, Ohio State, UCLA
6 Seeds:  Oklahoma, Saint Louis, Kentucky, Connecticut
7 Seeds:  New Mexico, Texas, Massachusetts, GONZAGA
8 Seeds:  Baylor, Oregon, Oklahoma State, George Washington
9 Seeds:  Memphis, Colorado, Pittsburgh, Stanford
10 Seeds:  Kansas State, Iowa, SMU, Arizona State
11 Seeds:  Xavier, Nebraska, Dayton, Tennessee, BYU
12 Seeds:  St. Joseph's, Providence, HARVARD, LOUISIANA TECH, NORTH DAKOTA STATE
13 Seeds:  MANHATTAN, STEPHEN F AUSTIN, GEORGIA STATE, TOLEDO
14 Seeds:  NEW MEXICO STATE, NC CENTRAL, MERCER, DELAWARE
15 Seeds:  AMERICAN, EASTERN KENTUCKY, WI MILWAUKEE, STONY BROOK
16 Seeds:  WEBER STATE, WOFFORD, MOUNT ST MARY'S, COASTAL CAROLINA, CS NORTHRIDGE, TEXAS SOUTHERN


Last 4 Byes:  Arizona State, Xavier, Nebraska, Dayton
Last 4 In:  Tennessee, BYU, St. Joseph's, Providence
First 4 Out:  Minnesota, Florida State, Southern Miss, Green Bay
Next 4 Out:  Missouri, California, St. John's, Utah

Friday, March 14, 2014

Bracket Projection - 3/14/2014

Here are my projections for games played through 3/13/2014

1 Seeds:  FLORIDA, ARIZONA, WICHITA STATE, Villanova
2 Seeds:  KANSAS, MICHIGAN, Wisconsin, Duke
3 Seeds:  VIRGINIA, CREIGHTON, Syracuse, LOUISVILLE
4 Seeds:  SAN DIEGO STATE, Iowa State, Cincinnati, Michigan State
5 Seeds:  North Carolina, Ohio State, UCLA, Connecticut
6 Seeds:  Oklahoma, SAINT LOUIS, VCU, Kentucky
7 Seeds:  New Mexico, Texas, Massachusetts, GONZAGA
8 Seeds:  Oregon, Baylor, George Washington, Memphis
9 Seeds:  Colorado, Pittsburgh, Oklahoma State, Iowa
10 Seeds:  Stanford, Kansas State, Arizona State, SMU
11 Seeds:  Xavier, Nebraska, Dayton, Tennessee, BYU
12 Seeds:  HARVARD, St. Joseph's, Florida State, SOUTHERN MISS, NORTH DAKOTA STATE
13 Seeds:  MANHATTAN, GEORGIA STATE, STEPHEN F AUSTIN, TOLEDO
14 Seeds:  MERCER, UC IRVINE, DELAWARE, NC CENTRAL
15 Seeds:  AMERICAN, EASTERN KENTUCKY, MILWAUKEE, STONY BROOK
16 Seeds:  WEBER STATE, UTAH VALLEY, WOFFORD, MOUNT ST MARY'S, COASTAL CAROLINA, ALABAMA STATE

Last 4 Byes:  SMU, Xavier, Nebraska, Dayton
Last 4 In:  Tennessee, BYU, St. Joseph's, Florida State
First 4 Out:  Minnesota, Providence, Louisiana Tech, Arkansas
Next 4 Out:  Green Bay, Missouri, California, St. John's


Thursday, March 13, 2014

Bracket Projection - 3/13/2014

1 Seeds:  FLORIDA, ARIZONA, VILLANOVA, WICHITA STATE
2 Seeds:  KANSAS, Wisconsin, Duke, VIRGINIA
3 Seeds:  Creighton, MICHIGAN, Syracuse, SAN DIEGO STATE
4 Seeds:  LOUISVILLE, Iowa State, Cincinnati, Michigan State
5 Seeds:  Oklahoma, North Carolina, Ohio State, VCU
6 Seeds:  SAINT LOUIS, Kentucky, UCLA, New Mexico
7 Seeds:  Connecticut, Massachusetts, Texas, GONZAGA
8 Seeds:  Oregon, Memphis, Oklahoma State, Iowa
9 Seeds:  Baylor, George Washington, SMU, Arizona State
10 Seeds:  Kansas State, Colorado, Pittsburgh, BYU
11 Seeds:  Stanford, Dayton, Tennessee, Xavier, Nebraska
12 Seeds:  HARVARD, St. Joseph's, Minnesota, NORTH DAKOTA STATE, SOUTHERN MISS
13 Seeds:  MANHATTAN, GEORGIA STATE, STEPHEN F AUSTIN, TOLEDO
14 Seeds:  MERCER, UC IRVINE, DELAWARE, NC CENTRAL
15 Seeds:  AMERICAN, EASTERN KENTUCKY, MILWAUKEE, STONY BROOK
16 Seeds:  WEBER STATE, WOFFORD, UTAH VALLEY, MOUNT ST. MARY'S, COASTAL CAROLINA, ALABAMA STATE

Last 4 Byes:  BYU, Stanford, Dayton, Tennessee
Last 4 In:  Xavier, Nebraska, St. Joseph's, Minnesota
First 4 Out:  Arkansas, California, Florida State, St. John's
Next 4 Out:  Utah, Louisiana Tech, Providence, Georgetown

Wednesday, March 12, 2014

Bracket Projection - 3/12/2014

1 Seeds:  FLORIDA, ARIZONA, VILLANOVA, WICHITA STATE
2 Seeds:  KANSAS, Duke, VIRGINIA, Wisconsin
3 Seeds:  LOISVILLE, Creighton, MICHIGAN, Syracuse
4 Seeds:  SAN DIEGO STATE, Michigan State, Iowa State, Cincinnati
5 Seeds:  Ohio State, VCU, North Carolina, Oklahoma
6 Seeds:  Kentucky, UCLA, New Mexico, SAINT LOUIS
7 Seeds:  GONZAGA, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Texas
8 Seeds:  Oklahoma State, Oregon, Baylor, Memphis
9 Seeds:  Iowa, Pittsburgh, SMU, George Washington
10 Seeds:  Arizona State, BYU, Kansas State, Colorado
11 Seeds:  Tennessee, Stanford, Xavier, Dayton, St. Joseph's
12 Seeds:  HARVARD, Nebraska, Minnesota, NORTH DAKOTA STATE, SOUTHERN MISS
13 Seeds:  MANHATTAN, GEORGIA STATE, STEPHEN F AUSTIN, TOLEDO
14 Seeds:  MERCER, UC IRVINE, DELAWARE, BOSTON U
15 Seeds:  NC CENTRAL, EASTERN KENTUCKY, STONY BROOK, MILWAUKEE
16 Seeds:  WOFFORD, WEBER STATE, UTAH VALLEY, MOUNT ST. MARY'S, COASTAL CAROLINA, ALABAMA STATE

Last 4 Byes:  Colorado, Tennessee, Stanford, Xavier
Last 4 In:  Dayton, St. Joseph's, Nebraska, Minnesota
First 4 Out:  Arkansas, California, Georgetown, Providence