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Wednesday, March 7, 2012

Bracket Projections - 3/7/2012

1 Seeds:  KENTUCKY, SYRACUSE, KANSAS, OHIO STATE
2 Seeds:  Michigan State, NORTH CAROLINA, Duke, Missouri
3 Seeds:  Indiana, Baylor, Marquette, Wisconsin
4 Seeds:  Georgetown, Michigan, Wichita State, MEMPHIS
5 Seeds:  Louisville, Vanderbilt, UNLV, TEMPLE
6 Seeds:  Florida, Kansas State, CREIGHTON, NEW MEXICO
7 Seeds:  Gonzaga, Saint Louis, Florida State, Purdue
8 Seeds:  Alabama, Iowa State, SAINT MARY'S, Virginia
9 Seeds:  San Diego State, California, Notre Dame, Connecticut
10 Seeds:  MURRAY STATE, Texas, Cincinnati, West Virginia
11 Seeds:  Southern Miss, HARVARD, VCU, BELMONT
12 Seeds:  BYU, Seton Hall, LONG BEACH STATE, Miami FL
13 Seeds:  Northwestern, NC State, South Florida, Drexel, WASHINGTON, SOUTH DAKOTA STATE
14 Seeds:  DAVIDSON, AKRON, NEVADA, MONTANA
15 Seeds:  BUCKNELL, LOYOLA MD, TX-ARLINGTON, DETROIT
16 Seeds:  NC-ASHEVILLE, LIU-BROOKLYN, STONY BROOK, SAVANNAH STATE, WESTERN KENTUCKY, MISSISSIPPI VALLEY STATE

Last 5 In:  Miami FL, Northwestern, NC State, South Florida, Drexel
First 5 Out:  Colorado State, Xavier, Iona, Arizona, Oregon

3 comments:

  1. Pretty solid, although I can guarantee you that Memphis will not be a 4 seed. What are the thoughts behind that?

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    Replies
    1. You're right that Memphis isn't deserving of a 4 seed. The problem is that nobody lower than Michigan at #14 is deserving of a 4 seed either. The different metrics I look at indicate that Memphis is probably more deserving of a 6 seed than a 4 seed, but other teams on the 5 seed line don't look any better to me either. They're largely there right now due to being #18 in the RPI and #11 in the Pomeroy ratings.

      Teams like Louisville, Vanderbilt, and UNLV - and even some of the teams I have on the 6 seed line right now like Florida and Kansas State - will face more difficult competition in their conference tournaments than Memphis will, and right now there's not much separating the teams on those seed lines after Michigan. As a result I do expect that Memphis will probably slide at least to a 5 seed and possibly even to a 6 seed when all is said and done.

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