1 Seeds: KENTUCKY, SYRACUSE, KANSAS, OHIO STATE
2 Seeds: Michigan State, NORTH CAROLINA, Duke, Missouri
3 Seeds: Indiana, Baylor, Marquette, Wisconsin
4 Seeds: Georgetown, Michigan, Wichita State, MEMPHIS
5 Seeds: Louisville, Vanderbilt, UNLV, TEMPLE
6 Seeds: Florida, Kansas State, CREIGHTON, NEW MEXICO
7 Seeds: Gonzaga, Saint Louis, Florida State, Purdue
8 Seeds: Alabama, Iowa State, SAINT MARY'S, Virginia
9 Seeds: San Diego State, California, Notre Dame, Connecticut
10 Seeds: MURRAY STATE, Texas, Cincinnati, West Virginia
11 Seeds: Southern Miss, HARVARD, VCU, BELMONT
12 Seeds: BYU, Seton Hall, LONG BEACH STATE, Miami FL
13 Seeds: Northwestern, NC State, South Florida, Drexel, WASHINGTON, SOUTH DAKOTA STATE
14 Seeds: DAVIDSON, AKRON, NEVADA, MONTANA
15 Seeds: BUCKNELL, LOYOLA MD, TX-ARLINGTON, DETROIT
16 Seeds: NC-ASHEVILLE, LIU-BROOKLYN, STONY BROOK, SAVANNAH STATE, WESTERN KENTUCKY, MISSISSIPPI VALLEY STATE
Last 5 In: Miami FL, Northwestern, NC State, South Florida, Drexel
First 5 Out: Colorado State, Xavier, Iona, Arizona, Oregon
Pretty solid, although I can guarantee you that Memphis will not be a 4 seed. What are the thoughts behind that?
ReplyDeleteYou're right that Memphis isn't deserving of a 4 seed. The problem is that nobody lower than Michigan at #14 is deserving of a 4 seed either. The different metrics I look at indicate that Memphis is probably more deserving of a 6 seed than a 4 seed, but other teams on the 5 seed line don't look any better to me either. They're largely there right now due to being #18 in the RPI and #11 in the Pomeroy ratings.
DeleteTeams like Louisville, Vanderbilt, and UNLV - and even some of the teams I have on the 6 seed line right now like Florida and Kansas State - will face more difficult competition in their conference tournaments than Memphis will, and right now there's not much separating the teams on those seed lines after Michigan. As a result I do expect that Memphis will probably slide at least to a 5 seed and possibly even to a 6 seed when all is said and done.
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