Here are my projections for games played through 1/10/2012. With conference play starting to get into full swing, I am now projecting each of the current conference leaders to get the auto-bid for their conference (even if I don't necessarily think they will end up there). As a result teams like Colorado who's currently leading the Pac-12 is being projected to make the tournament here although they have pretty much no shot at getting an at-large bid. This sort of thing helps account for the fact that there's always a few "bid thieves" come March and thus makes for a more accurate projection of where the line is between those that are in the tournament and those that are out.
1 Seeds: SYRACUSE, Ohio State, Kentucky, NORTH CAROLINA
2 Seeds: MICHIGAN STATE, Indiana, Duke, BAYLOR
3 Seeds: Kansas, Missouri, UNLV, Georgetown
4 Seeds: Alabama, Kansas State, Gonzaga, Seton Hall
5 Seeds: Marquette, Connecticut, Michigan, Louisville
6 Seeds: Florida, MURRAY STATE, West Virginia, Creighton
7 Seeds: Wisconsin, Virginia, Purdue, VANDERBILT
8 Seeds: SAINT MARY'S, WICHITA STATE, New Mexico, Illinois
9 Seeds: California, Saint Louis, Memphis, San Diego State
10 Seeds: DAYTON, SOUTHERN MISS, Temple, Mississippi State
11 Seeds: Brigham Young, Texas, IONA, Northern Iowa
12 Seeds: Stanford, Marshall, HARVARD, Virginia Tech, Iowa State, Xavier
13 Seeds: LONG BEACH STATE, ORAL ROBERTS, MIDDLE TENNESSEE, CLEVELAND STATE
14 Seeds: BELMONT, DAVIDSON, NEVADA, COLORADO
15 Seeds: LAMAR, GEORGE MASON, WEBER STATE, BUCKNELL
16 Seeds: NORFOLK STATE, BALL STATE, NC ASHEVILLE, LONG ISLAND, STONY BROOK, MISSISSIPPI VALLEY STATE
Last 4 Byes: Brigham Young, Texas, Northern Iowa, Stanford
Last 4 In: Marshall, Virginia Tech, Iowa State, Xavier
First 4 Out: Florida State, Saint Joseph's, NC State, Northwestern
Next 4 Out: Missouri State, Arizona, Cincinnati, Wyoming
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