Sunday, October 24, 2021

Early preseason NCAA tournament projections - 10/24/21

I will emphasize that this is very early with very limited data available. KenPom is the only rating included on the teamsheets that has even been released yet, and the "NET" rankings I'm utilizing are simply a projected final NET ranking based upon simulated season results from Bart Torvik and are wildly speculative at this point. Other ratings used by committee that have not been released yet include Sagarin, BPI, Strength of Record, and KPI. Let's just say there's a reason I usually don't come out w/ preseason projections and things could easily look vastly different a month from today compared to what I have right now. Regardless of all that, here's my very early projections for the 2022 NCAA tournament:

1 Seeds:  GONZAGA, UCLA, ILLINOIS, Kansas
2 Seeds:  MEMPHIS, Michigan, Purdue, TEXAS
3 Seeds:  Baylor, DUKE, Houston, Ohio St
4 Seeds;  VILLANOVA, TENNESSEE, ST. BONAVENTURE, Alabama
5 Seeds:  Kentucky, Connecticut, Xavier, Florida
6 seeds:  Auburn, USC, Maryland, Louisville
7 Seeds:  Arkansas, Florida St, North Carolina, LOYOLA CHICAGO
8 Seeds:  Indiana, Texas Tech, SAN DIEGO ST, Notre Dame
9 Seeds:  Saint Mary's, Michigan St, Oregon, Arizona
10 Seeds:  Richmond, BYU, Seton Hall, West Virginia
11 Seeds:  UCF, San Francisco, LSU, Colorado St, Oklahoma St
12 Seeds:  UAB, Oklahoma, Utah St, OHIO, BELMONT
13 Seeds:  UC SANTA BARBARA, COLGATE, LIBERTY, NEW MEXICO ST
14 Seeds:  SOUTH DAKOTA ST, VERMONT, WRIGHT ST, IONA
15 Seeds:  GEORGIA ST, SOUTHERN UTAH, NORTHEASTERN, CHATTANOOGA
16 Seeds:  YALOE, WINTHROP, MERRIMACK, MORGAN ST, JACKSON ST, NICHOLLS ST

Last 4 Byes:
West Virginia
UCF
San Francisco
LSU

Last 4 In:
Colorado St
Oklahoma St
Oklahoma
Utah St

First 4 Out:
Virginia Tech
Nevada
Drake
Iowa

Next 4 Out:
Wichita St
Northwestern
Providence
Syracuse