NCAA Bracket Projection - 12/4/21

 Here's my first in-season update of the season.  NET still hasn't been released so still using a forecasted end-of-season NET projection for now.  Once NET is officially released later this month I will start using that as well.  KPI also has yet to be released so will start incorporating that as well once it starts being released.

1 Seeds:  PURDUE, BAYLOR, DUKE, GONZAGA

2 Seeds:  UCLA, ARIZONA, Kansas, USC

3 Seeds:  LSU, VILLANOVA, HOUSTON, Florida

4 Seeds:  Michigan St, Auburn, Wisconsin, Alabama

5 Seeds:  Arkansas, Iowa, Tennessee, Ohio St

6 Seeds;  Seton Hall, Connecticut, BYU, Xavier

7 Seeds:  Texas, Kentucky, Memphis, Virginia Tech

8 Seeds:  Saint Mary's, Colorado St, Oklahoma, Indiana

9 Seeds:  Florida St, St. Bonaventure, LOYOLA CHICAGO, San Francisco

10 Seeds:  Providence, North Carolina, Texas Tech, Louisville

11 Seeds:  Illinois, Wichita St, Mississippi St, Iowa St, West Virginia, UTAH ST

12 Seeds:  IONA, OHIO, BELMONT, UC IRVINE

13 Seeds:  WEBER ST, CHATTANOOGA, SOUTH DAKOTA ST, RHODE ISLAND

14 Seeds:  UAB, NAVY, OAKLAND, TEXAS ST

15 Seeds:  CAMPBELL, NEW MEXICO ST, VERMONT, WAGNER

16 Seeds:  HOFSTRA, JACKSONVILLE ST, NORFOLK ST, YALE, NICHOLLS ST, JACKSON ST

Last 4 Byes:

North Carolina

Texas Tech

Louisville

Illinois

Last 4 In:

Wichita St

Mississippi st

Iowa St

West Virginia

First 4 Out:

Michigan

San Diego St

Wyoming

Saint Louis

Next 4 Out:

Washington St

Cincinnati

Texas A&M

St. John's

Final Preseason NCAA Bracket Projection - 11/6/21

 Here's my final preseason NCAA bracket projection.  Sagarin and BPI preseason ratings have now been released so I figured I'd update my projections accordingly.  This is still wildly speculative given that I'm using projected NET ratings from projected final season records in my analysis.  Once actual NET rankings are released then I'll start using those instead but prior to that it's pretty speculative.  Conference champs (teams in bold) are determined simply by highest rated team in the NET projections being utilized.

1 Seeds:  GONZAGA, ILLINOIS, UCLA, Kansas

2 Seeds:  Michigan, Purdue, TEXAS, MEMPHIS

3 Seeds:  Houston, Baylor, DUKE, VILLANOVA

4 Seeds:  Ohio St, Kentucky, TENNESSEE, ST. BONAVENTURE

5 Seeds:  Connecticut, Alabama, Florida, Louisville

6 Seeds:  Maryland, Xavier, Arkansas, Florida St

7 Seeds:  Auburn, North Carolina, USC, Texas Tech

8 Seeds:  Oregon, SAN DIEGO ST, Michigan St, Indiana

9 Seeds:  Notre Dame, LOYOLA CHICAGO, Saint Mary's, Richmond

10 Seeds:  BYU, West Virginia, Seton Hall, Arizona

11 Seeds:  LSU, Oklahoma St, Oklahoma, Colorado St, UCF

12 Seeds:  UAB, Virginia Tech, Utah St, OHIO, BELMONT

13 Seeds:  COLGATE, UC SANTA BARBARA, LIBERTY, SOUTH DAKOTA ST

14 Seeds:  NEW MEXICO ST, VERMONT, IONA, WRIGHT ST

15 Seeds:  GEORGIA ST, SOUTHERN UTAH, NORTHEASTERN, CHATTANOOGA

16 Seeds:  WINTHROP, YALE, MERRIMACK, MORGAN ST, JACKSON ST, NICHOLLS ST

Last 4 Byes:

Arizona

LSU

Oklahoma St

Oklahoma

Last 4 In:

Colorado St

UCF

Virginia Tech

Utah St

First 4 Out:

Iowa

Providence

San Francisco

Syracuse

Next 4 Out:

Drake

Mississippi St

Wisconsin

Clemson

Early preseason NCAA tournament projections - 10/24/21

I will emphasize that this is very early with very limited data available. KenPom is the only rating included on the teamsheets that has even been released yet, and the "NET" rankings I'm utilizing are simply a projected final NET ranking based upon simulated season results from Bart Torvik and are wildly speculative at this point. Other ratings used by committee that have not been released yet include Sagarin, BPI, Strength of Record, and KPI. Let's just say there's a reason I usually don't come out w/ preseason projections and things could easily look vastly different a month from today compared to what I have right now. Regardless of all that, here's my very early projections for the 2022 NCAA tournament:

1 Seeds:  GONZAGA, UCLA, ILLINOIS, Kansas

2 Seeds:  MEMPHIS, Michigan, Purdue, TEXAS

3 Seeds:  Baylor, DUKE, Houston, Ohio St

4 Seeds;  VILLANOVA, TENNESSEE, ST. BONAVENTURE, Alabama

5 Seeds:  Kentucky, Connecticut, Xavier, Florida

6 seeds:  Auburn, USC, Maryland, Louisville

7 Seeds:  Arkansas, Florida St, North Carolina, LOYOLA CHICAGO

8 Seeds:  Indiana, Texas Tech, SAN DIEGO ST, Notre Dame

9 Seeds:  Saint Mary's, Michigan St, Oregon, Arizona

10 Seeds:  Richmond, BYU, Seton Hall, West Virginia

11 Seeds:  UCF, San Francisco, LSU, Colorado St, Oklahoma St

12 Seeds:  UAB, Oklahoma, Utah St, OHIO, BELMONT

13 Seeds:  UC SANTA BARBARA, COLGATE, LIBERTY, NEW MEXICO ST

14 Seeds:  SOUTH DAKOTA ST, VERMONT, WRIGHT ST, IONA

15 Seeds:  GEORGIA ST, SOUTHERN UTAH, NORTHEASTERN, CHATTANOOGA

16 Seeds:  YALOE, WINTHROP, MERRIMACK, MORGAN ST, JACKSON ST, NICHOLLS ST

Last 4 Byes:

West Virginia

UCF

San Francisco

LSU

Last 4 In:

Colorado St

Oklahoma St

Oklahoma

Utah St

First 4 Out:

Virginia Tech

Nevada

Drake

Iowa

Next 4 Out:

Wichita St

Northwestern

Providence

Syracuse

Final NCAA Bracket Projection - 3/14/21

 Here's my final projection for the 2021 NCAA Tournament.

1 Seeds:  GONZAGA, Baylor, ILLINOIS, Michigan

2 Seeds:  ALABAMA, Ohio St, Iowa, HOUSTON

3 Seeds:  Arkansas, TEXAS, Kansas, Oklahoma St

4 Seeds:  Virginia, West Virginia, Purdue, Villanova

5 Seeds:  USC, Florida St, Tennessee, Creighton

6 Seeds:  Colorado, BYU, LSU, Texas Tech

7 Seeds:  SAN DIEGO ST, Missouri, Oregon, Clemson

8 Seeds:  LOYOLA CHICAGO, Wisconsin, Connecticut, Oklahoma

9 Seeds:  North Carolina, ST. BONAVENTURE, GEORGIA TECH, Florida

10 Seeds:  Rutgers, VCU, Maryland, Virginia Tech

11 Seeds:  UCLA, Louisville, Michigan St, Syracuse, Drake, Utah St

12 Seeds:  GEORGETOWN, OREGON ST, COLGATE, UC SANTA BARBARA

13 Seeds:  WINTRHOP, NORTH TEXAS, OHIO, UNC GREENSBORO

14 Seeds:  ABILENE CHRISTIAN, MOREHEAD ST, LIBERTY, EASTERN WASHINGTON

15 Seeds:  GRAND CANYON, CLEVELAND ST, DREXEL, IONA

16 Seeds:  HARTFORD, ORAL ROBERTS, NORFOLK ST, APPALACHIAN ST, TEXAS SOUTHERN, MOUNT ST. MARY'S

Last 4 Byes:

Maryland

Virginia Tech

UCLA

Louisville

Last 4 In:

Michigan St

Syracuse

Drake

Utah St

First 4 Out:

Wichita St

Colorado St

Saint Louis

Memphis

NCAA Bracket Projection - 3/14/21 AM

 Here's my updated bracket projections through games played 3/13/21.  I plan on re-evaluating teams (especially those I have on the borders of seed lines) and factoring in todays game results before posting a final update this afternoon.

1 Seeds:  GONZAGA, Baylor, ILLINOIS, Michigan

2 Seeds:  ALABAMA, Ohio St, HOUSTON, Iowa

3 Seeds:  Arkansas, Kansas, TEXAS, Oklahoma St

4 Seeds:  Virginia, West Virginia, Villanova, Purdue

5 Seeds:  Florida St, USC, Tennessee, Creighton

6 Seeds:  Colorado, BYU, LSU, Texas Tech

7 Seeds:  SAN DIEGO ST, Missouri, LOYOLA CHICAGO, Clemson

8 Seeds:  Oregon, Wisconsin, Connecticut, North Carolina

9 Seeds:  Florida, Oklahoma, ST. BONAVENTURE, GEORGIA TECH

10 Seeds:  VCU, Rutgers, Maryland, Virginia Tech

11 Seeds:  UCLA, Syracuse, Louisville, Michigan St, Utah St, Drake

12 Seeds:  GEORGETOWN, OREGON ST, COLGATE, UC SANTA BARBARA

13 Seeds:  WINTHROP, NORTH TEXAS, OHIO, UNC GREENSBORO

14 Seeds:  LIBERTY, ABILENE CHRISTIAN, MOREHEAD ST, EASTERN WASHINGTON

15 Seeds:  GRAND CANYON, CLEVELAND ST, IONA, DREXEL

16 Seeds:  ORAL ROBERTS, HARTFORD, NORFOLK ST, APPALACHIAN ST, TEXAS SOUTHER, MOUNT ST MARY'S

Last 4 Byes:

Maryland

Virginia Tech

UCLA

Syracuse

Last 4 In:

Louisville

Michigan St

Utah St

Drake

First 4 Out:

Wichita St

Saint Louis

Colorado St

Boise St

Next 4 Out:

Memphis

Mississippi

Xavier

Saint Mary's

NCAA Bracket Projection - 3/13/21

 Here's my updated bracket projection.  This is through games played 3/12 and partially factors in games played 3/13.

1 Seeds:  GONZAGA, Baylor, Michigan, ILLINOIS

2 Seeds:  ALABAMA, Ohio St, Iowa, HOUSTON

3 Seeds:  Arkansas, Kansas, Oklahoma St, TEXAS

4 Seeds:  Virginia, FLORIDA ST, West Virginia, Creighton

5 Seeds:  Purdue, USC, COLORADO, Villanova

6 Seeds:  Tennessee, BYU, Texas Tech, Oregon

7 Seeds:  SAN DIEGO ST, LSU, LOYOLA CHICAGO, Clemson

8 Seeds:  Missouri, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Connecticut

9 Seeds:  Florida, Oklahoma, ST. BONAVENTURE, VCU

10 Seeds:  Georgia Tech, Rutgers, Maryland, Virginia Tech

11 Seeds;  UCLA, Syracuse, Louisville, Utah St, Michigan St

12 Seeds:  Drake, Wichita St, GEORGETOWN, WINTHROP, WESTERN KENTUCKY

13 Seeds:  COLGATE, UC SANTA BARBARA, UNC GREENSBORO, BUFFALO

14 Seeds:  LIBERTY, MOREHEAD ST, EASTERN WASHINGTON, GRAND CANYON

15 Seeds:  CLEVELAND ST, IONA, DREXEL, ORAL ROBERTS

16 Seeds:  NICHOLLS ST, PRAIRIE VIEW, HARTFORD, APPALACHIAN ST, NORFOLK ST, MOUNT ST MARY'S

Last 4 Byes:

Virginia Tech

UCLA

Syracuse

Louisville

Last 4 In:

Utah St

Drake

Michigan St

Wichita St

First 4 Out:

Colorado St

Saint Louis

Boise St

Memphis

Next 4 Out:

Mississippi

Xavier

Seton Hall

Duke

NCAA Bracket Projection - 3/12/21

 Here's my updated projections through games played 3/11/21.

1 Seeds:  GONZAGA, BAYLOR, MICHIGAN, Illinois

2 Seeds:  ALABAMA, Iowa, Ohio St, Houston

3 Seeds:  Arkansas, Kansas, Virginia, USC

4 Seeds:  Villanova, Texas, West Virginia, Purdue

5 Seeds:  Oklahoma St, FLORIDA ST, CREIGHTON, Colorado

6 Seeds:  Tennessee, Texas Tech, BYU, OREGON

7 Seeds:  SAN DIEGO ST, LOYOLA CHICAGO, Clemson, LSU

8 Seeds:  Missouri, Wisconsin, Oklahoma, Connecticut

9 Seeds:  Florida, North Carolina, ST. BONAVENTURE, Rutgers

10 Seeds:  Virginia Tech, VCU, Georgia Tech, Maryland

11 Seeds:  UCLA, Syracuse, Louisville, WICHITA ST

12 Seeds:  Michigan St, Colorado St, Drake, Utah St, COLGATE, WINTHROP

13 Seeds:  UC SANTA BARBARA, WESTERN KENTUCKY, TOLEDO, UNC GREENSBORO

14 Seeds:  LIBERTY, MOREHEAD ST, SOUTHERN UTAH, GRAND CANYON

15 Seeds:  CLEVELAND ST, DREXEL, ORAL ROBERTS, NICHOLLS ST

16 Seeds:  HARTFORD, PRAIRIE VIEW, APPALACHIAN ST, MOUNT ST MARY'S, SAINT PETER'S, COPPIN ST

Last 4 Byes:

Maryland

UCLA

Syracuse

Louisville

Last 4 In:

Michigan St

Colorado St

Drake

Utah St

First 4 Out:

Saint Louis

Boise St

Mississippi

SMU

Next 4 Out:

Duke

Seton Hall

Xavier

Memphis